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杰克逊霍尔成为焦点,全场静待沃什重磅演说

Ultima Markets 每日市场展望 – 2026年8月28日

全场瞩目杰克逊霍尔央行年会,寻找最新货币政策信号

周四全球金融市场维持低波动盘整格局,美股三大指数呈现谨慎乐观。全场焦点全面锁定今晚即将开启的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会,以及新上任美联储主席凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)在该盛会上的首秀重磅演说。

回顾近期盘面,本周全市场整体处于阶段性修正与回落节奏中:

  • 美元指数止跌反弹: 在经历近两周的持续抛售并在低位筑底后,美钞展开反弹并重新夺回 99.00 关键关口。
  • 黄金自高位回落: 现货黄金自近期历史高位承压回调,多头冲高动能有所收敛。

这一修正价格走势的主因在于,市场已基本充分定价了美联储在 9 月议息会议上按兵不动的预期。因此,交易员正在暂时平仓极端头寸并等待新的宏观催化剂。

尽管杰克逊霍尔并非官方议息会议,但市场参与者将密切研读沃什的讲话,以寻找有关长期政策展望和经济评估的关键线索。因此,预计今日盘面将延续近期的短线修正趋势,而随着杰克逊霍尔会议的推进,市场波动性或将显著放大。

技术分析和展望:外汇与黄金

美元指数:站稳 99.00 支撑,短线反弹动能延续

美元指数此前已成功夺回关键心理关口并展开稳固盘整,维持其短线上升轨迹完好。

USDX, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

正如昨日文章所述,汇价在 99.00 上方的走势构筑了短线上升通道。只要日内回调能稳固守于 99.00 上方,美元仍具备向 99.50 进一步反弹的空间。

(更多详细技术解析,读者可参考昨日美元指数专项分析。)

英镑/美元:受制于 1.3600 阻力,下行深度回调风险加剧

英镑在跌破关键心理支撑后,技术结构依然处于相对脆弱的偏空格局。

GBPUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

在 4 小时图(H4)上,英镑/美元跌破了 1.3600 关键位。虽然日内出现小幅反弹,但 1.3600 区域现已转为近期强劲的上方阻力。

除非买盘能重新夺回并站稳 1.3600 上方,否则该货币对短线展望仍偏向下行修正浪,指向 1.3550 – 1.3520 区域的更低结构支撑。

欧元/美元:通道回调测试 1.1660,留意牛旗形态突破

同样,欧元近期在明确的技术结构内呈现出有序的回调形态。

EURUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

在 H2/H4 图表上,欧元/美元正在沿着一条倾斜向下的盘整通道运行。该形态在更广泛的上行趋势中可被视为典型的“牛旗”(Bullish Flag)整理结构。只要汇价受制于 1.1660 下方,短线风险仍偏向下行回调。

反之,若价格能有效向上突破该通道阻力线,将宣告短线回调失效,并发出近期看涨延续的信号。

黄金(XAU/USD):深度回调测试 $4,500–$4,535 核心支撑带

贵金属市场在跌破短线技术位后,展开了更深层次的阶段性修正。

XAUUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

在跌破 $4,600 关口后,黄金已将其日内回调延伸至 $4,500 – $4,535 核心结构支撑走廊。对于日内交易员而言,当前应顺应日内下行趋势进行日内操作。

虽然今晚杰克逊霍尔会议期间预计将引发剧烈的高波动,但从技术结构来看,$4,500 – $4,535 区域构成了顺应主升趋势进行波段逢低布局的关键买盘阵地。

市场总结与今日关注焦点

在今晚美联储主席沃什发表演说引发剧烈波动前,事件前夕的仓位调整与技术性修正浪预计将主导早期交易。

今日重点关注:

  • 美联储主席沃什重磅演说: 密切关注杰克逊霍尔讲话中关于政策路径与经济基调的表态。
  • 美元指数 99.00 支撑地板: 跟踪日内回调能否稳固守于 99.00 上方以延续短线反弹。
  • 英镑/美元 1.3600 上方阻力: 观察重测 1.3600 时的卖盘压制,确认更深度的回调风险。
  • 欧元/美元 1.1660 旗形通道: 观察汇价在 1.1660 附近的表现,判断是延续通道破位还是迎来看涨突破。
  • 黄金 $4,500–$4,535 支撑防线: 跟踪买盘在该核心结构区域的守御情况,寻找波段交易布局机会。

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本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料仅供参考,旨在帮助读者了解市场形势,并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性,但不能保证资料的绝对准确性,并可能随时更改,恕不另行通知。Ultima Markets对于因直接或间接使用或依赖此类资料而可能导致的任何损失或亏损(包括但不限于利润损失)不承担责任。

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