AUDJPY: Bearish Pressure Persists Below 109.64 Resistance

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of AUDJPY for October 01, 2026.

Technical Analysis of AUDJPY

AUDJPY Daily Chart Insight

(AUDJPY Daily Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

AUDJPY continues to experience significant bearish pressure following its rejection from the August highs near 114.50. The pair has established a series of lower highs and lower lows, with its latest decline pushing prices below the red 16-period moving average (MA16), purple 50-period moving average (MA50), and blue 100-period moving average (MA100). The red MA16 has turned sharply downward, while the purple MA50 and blue MA100 remain above the current price, reinforcing the prevailing bearish structure.

The daily RSI stands at 34.14, indicating persistent selling pressure as the indicator approaches oversold territory. With prices approaching previous support around 108.90, sellers retain the broader advantage. A sustained breakdown below this area would strengthen the bearish outlook, while a recovery above the red MA16 would be required to signal an initial improvement in momentum.

Key Levels:

• Support 1 (108.90): The immediate support area, corresponding to recent lows and the previous July price rejection zone.
• Support 2 (108.20): A lower support area near the earlier February swing-low region, which may become relevant if selling pressure intensifies.
• Resistance 1 (110.30): An immediate resistance area associated with recent price consolidation and the late-September rebound.
• Resistance 2 (111.00): A potential recovery target near the declining red MA16, which could attract renewed selling pressure.
• Resistance 3 (112.40–112.90): A broader resistance zone containing the purple MA50 and blue MA100, where a sustained recovery would face a more substantial technical challenge.

AUDJPY 2-Hour Chart Analysis

(AUDJPY 2-Hour Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

AUDJPY remains firmly within a short-term bearish trend, although the latest price action suggests that selling momentum is temporarily stabilising. The pair continues to trade below the declining red 16-period moving average (MA16), purple 50-period moving average (MA50), and blue 100-period moving average (MA100), maintaining a bearish moving-average alignment. Following the recent sharp decline, prices have entered a narrow consolidation range around 109.20–109.40, suggesting a temporary pause rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

RSI has recovered to 46.91 from near-oversold territory, indicating improving short-term momentum without establishing bullish control. The immediate focus remains on resistance around 109.64, where a successful breakout could support a corrective recovery. However, failure to regain this level would leave the broader bearish structure intact.

Breakout Scenarios:

• Bullish continuation is a possible countertrend scenario, triggered by a decisive break and sustained hold above 109.64. This could open the way towards 109.90, followed by the 110.30 resistance area, where the declining purple MA50 may present an additional obstacle.
• Bearish correction remains consistent with the prevailing trend if prices fail to reclaim 109.64 and subsequently break below the immediate consolidation support around 109.20. Such a development could expose the recent swing-low area near 108.80.

AUDJPY Pivot Indicator

(AUDJPY 30-Minute Chart, Source: Trading Central)

AUDJPY maintains a bearish intraday bias, with the current price hovering around 109.34, below the main pivot resistance at 109.64. Recent price action shows a narrow consolidation following the earlier decline, while the RSI stands at 49.01, indicating relatively neutral short-term momentum.

Meanwhile, the MACD has begun recovering towards its signal line, suggesting that immediate selling pressure may be easing. Nevertheless, the absence of a confirmed breakout above the pivot keeps the bearish scenario intact, with downside targets remaining at 108.75 and 108.53.

• Bearish Breakdown: As long as AUDJPY remains below the 109.64 pivot, the bearish preference remains valid. A renewed decline accompanied by weakening RSI and a bearish MACD crossover would reinforce the downside outlook, with 108.75 serving as the first target, followed by 108.53.
• Bullish Reversal: A decisive breakout and sustained hold above 109.64 would challenge the immediate bearish outlook and potentially initiate a short-term recovery. The first upside target is located at 110.01, followed by 110.23. Stronger RSI momentum above its current reading of 49.01, together with a sustained bullish MACD crossover, would provide additional confirmation of the recovery.

Disclaimer Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.