USDollar Rejected at Channel Resistance: 101.50 Breakdown Could Expose 100.30

The US Dollar Index is losing momentum after a strong rally carried price toward the upper boundary of its broader ascending channel. The rejection from the 102.50–102.70 region has already triggered a meaningful pullback, while short-term momentum indicators are beginning to favour sellers. With USDX now testing 101.50, a confirmed break below this level could extend the correction toward 100.90 and 100.30.

USDX Daily Chart Analysis

On the daily chart, the broader structure remains inside a well-defined ascending channel, but the latest reaction from its upper boundary deserves close attention.

USDX rallied aggressively from the August lows around 98.50 and eventually reached the 102.20–102.60 region, where price met the upper channel line. Buyers were unable to sustain the advance, and the index has since reversed lower with several consecutive bearish candles.

The rejection is technically significant because it occurred precisely where the broader rising structure suggested resistance. Instead of consolidating near the highs, USDX quickly surrendered part of the latest advance and has now returned to the important 101.50 area.

This level previously acted as a major breakout zone. Price spent considerable time below 101.50 before the September rally finally cleared it, meaning the current retest will help determine whether the recent breakout can survive or whether the market is moving into a deeper correction.

The RSI (14) confirms the loss of momentum. The indicator currently stands near 55.78, having retreated sharply after recently moving above the 70 overbought threshold. RSI remains above the neutral 50 line, so the broader bullish momentum has not completely disappeared, but the rapid decline from overbought territory shows that buying pressure has weakened considerably.

The recent candles tell a similar story. Following the rejection near the channel ceiling, bearish bodies have become more prominent and price has continued to close progressively lower. There is currently little evidence of a strong bullish response from 101.50.

A decisive daily close below 101.50 would therefore strengthen the corrective scenario and expose 100.30, the next major horizontal support visible on the daily chart.

Key Levels:

• 102.50–102.70: Major resistance and upper boundary of the ascending channel.
• 101.50: Critical support and the key level for bearish continuation.
• 100.30: Main daily downside objective following a confirmed breakdown.

USDX 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The 4-hour chart shows a clearer deterioration in the short-term bullish structure.

The rally from the September lows had been supported by a steep ascending trendline, but that trendline has now been decisively broken. The break followed a failed attempt to extend above 102.60 and marked the first significant structural weakness since the September advance began.

USDX has also slipped below both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen of the Ichimoku indicator. These lines are now positioned above current price, reflecting weakening short-term momentum and creating additional dynamic resistance on any rebound.

Price is currently testing the lower region of the Ichimoku cloud around 101.50. This adds further importance to the level: a sustained move below 101.50 would not only break horizontal support but would also push USDX beneath the Kumo, providing stronger confirmation that the short-term trend has turned bearish.

The Ichimoku structure ahead has also become less supportive than during the earlier rally. The cloud has flattened and narrowed compared with the strong bullish expansion seen through September and early October, suggesting that the previous upward momentum is losing strength.

If 101.50 gives way, the first downside objective comes in around 100.90. This level represents the nearest intermediate support on the 4-hour chart.

Below 100.90, the next major target is 100.30, where stronger horizontal demand may emerge.

USDX Bearish Continuation Scenario

The daily and 4-hour charts are beginning to align around a deeper corrective move.

On the daily timeframe, USDX has been rejected from the upper boundary of its ascending channel, while RSI has fallen sharply from overbought territory. On the 4-hour chart, the rising trendline has broken, price has moved below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, and the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud is now being tested around 101.50.

The decisive level is 101.50.

A sustained break and close below this support would strengthen the bearish structure and expose 100.90 first. If selling pressure persists below that level, the correction could extend toward the more important 100.30 support zone.

For now, the broader daily channel remains intact, but the rejection from its upper boundary has clearly shifted short-term momentum in favour of sellers. A break below 101.50 would be the confirmation that the pullback is developing into a deeper correction.

Bearish path: 101.50 breakdown → 100.90 → 100.30.