US Data, RBA Decision & Geopolitical Risk Drive Week Ahead

Ultima Markets Weekly Market Outlook & Insights – 28 September to 2 October 2026

Market Recap: Wall Street Bounces on AI Rally & Trade Truce Extension

Wall Street closed a volatile week on an upbeat note on Friday, with another rally in AI-related stocks helping investors look past elevated Treasury yields. On the diplomatic front, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi wrapped up a three-day summit in Washington, agreeing to establish an AI-related communication channel and to extend their current trade truce by two months.

• While optimism from the diplomatic front may extend into this week, the market’s core focus is shifting back to monetary policy and economic fundamentals.
• Key central bank catalysts include the RBA rate decision, US PCE price index, and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), alongside renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

Week Ahead: Key Macro Outlook & Geopolitical Risk Uncertainty

1. RBA Interest Rate Decision — Tuesday

Tuesday’s RBA decision will test whether recent inflation risks warrant another round of tightening. With rates already up 75 basis points this year to 4.35%, underlying inflation remaining elevated, and a rate hike largely priced in by money markets, another increase paired with hawkish guidance could support the Australian Dollar and bond yields. Conversely, if the RBA holds or emphasizes growth downside risks, rate-hike expectations could ease and weigh on AUD.

2. US PCE Inflation & Personal Spending — Wednesday

Wednesday’s PCE inflation, personal income, and spending data will test whether persistent price pressures and resilient consumer demand still support further Fed tightening. With core inflation above target and consumer spending remaining resilient, stronger-than-expected data could strengthen expectations for further rate hikes and push the US Dollar and Treasury yields higher.

3. US Nonfarm Payrolls Report — Friday

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the key test of whether the US labor market is genuinely weakening. With employment still resilient and markets pricing in further tightening risk, solid job growth and a stable unemployment rate could sustain hawkish rate expectations. Only a clearly weaker-than-expected report would likely prompt markets to scale back bets on further Fed rate hikes.

4. Middle East Uncertainty & Energy Market Friction

Geopolitical risks re-emerged over the weekend as President Trump reportedly rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, abruptly reversing last week’s diplomatic optimism. As Iran awaits an official U.S. response via mediators and Washington asserts it is in no rush, energy traders remain firmly on edge.

Weekly Technical Outlook: Dollar, Gold & Crude Oil

U.S. Dollar Index: Consolidating Near 101.00 Ahead of Tier-1 Macro Releases

While the Dollar’s bullish bias remains undoubtedly intact, the long-rallied Greenback continues to trade near key structural levels as market participants await clarity from this week’s PCE and NFP releases.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technically, the month-long rally in the Dollar Index has come to a temporary halt as USDX consolidates above the 100.40 – 101.00 corridor. Sustaining price action above 100.40 maintains a near-term bullish bias tilting toward resistance at 101.00 – 102.25.

However, as the Greenback has not undergone a significant pullback over its 3-week rally, near-term price action could experience a consolidation correction ahead of major data. A breakdown below 100.40 would risk triggering a deeper pullback toward 100.00.

Spot Gold: $4,250 – $4,300 Zone Weakens Amid Rising Yields

While Gold held the $4,250 – $4,300 support zone for most of last week, Friday’s breakdown below $4,250 has notably increased near-term downside risks.

XAUUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technically, the break below $4,250 and the early-week extension toward $4,200 have shifted Gold back into bearish territory. Sustained price action below $4,250 favors a sharper drop toward $4,200. If the $4,200 level fails to hold, Gold risks a deeper slide toward $4,100. Heading into key macro data, downside risks remain prominent.

WTI Crude Oil: Bouncing off $93.00 Support as Strait of Hormuz Risk Returns

Crude oil prices are attempting to stabilize after recent downside consolidation, as renewed tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz inject geopolitical risk premiums back into energy markets.

USOUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technically, WTI Crude Oil held firm above key support near $93.00 last week, staging a rebound toward $99.70 before pulling back. Market sentiment remains mixed amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty.

Traders should monitor the major $93.00 – $99.70 ($100.00) consolidation range for a potential breakout, though price action remains highly headline-driven. A sustained hold above $93.00 opens the path toward resistance at $98.50 and $102.00, while a breakdown below $93.00 would re-expose lower support at $90.00.

Weekly Market Summary & Key Highlights

The macroeconomic landscape this week will be dictated by central bank policy guidance, tier-1 US inflation and jobs data, and geopolitical headlines across energy markets.

Simply put, traders should watch whether the US Dollar holds above 100.40 post-PCE/NFP releases, if Gold can defend the critical $4,200 floor, and whether Crude Oil breaks out of its $93.00 – $99.70 consolidation range.

What to Watch This Week:

• RBA Rate Decision (Tuesday): Watch whether the RBA delivers a 25 bps hike to 4.60% or holds, and monitor forward guidance for AUD impact.
• US PCE Inflation (Wednesday): Track core PCE metrics to gauge whether persistent price pressures justify further Fed rate hikes.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday): Monitor headline employment growth and the unemployment rate to confirm labor market resilience.
• US Dollar Index Support Floor (100.40 / 100.00): Watch whether USDX defends 100.40 or retests lower support at 100.00 on softer macro data.
• Spot Gold Critical Support ($4,250 / $4,200): Observe whether Gold reclaims $4,250 or breaks below $4,200 toward $4,100.
• WTI Crude Consolidation Range ($93.00 – $99.70): Track Strait of Hormuz headlines for a breakout above $99.70 or a breakdown below $93.00.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.