XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Persists Below 4200 Pivot

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of XAUUSD for September 29, 2026.

Technical Analysis of XAUUSD

XAUUSD Daily Chart Insight

(XAUUSD Daily Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

XAUUSD has experienced a sharp bearish reversal, extending its recent decline towards the 4120 area after failing to sustain its recovery in August. The latest selloff has pushed prices decisively below the red 16-period moving average (MA16), purple 50-period moving average (MA50), and blue 100-period moving average (MA100), signalling renewed selling pressure. The red MA16 has turned sharply lower, while the purple MA50 and blue MA100 are converging around the 4300 region, forming a potential resistance zone.

Meanwhile, the daily RSI has declined to 34.90, reflecting weakening bullish momentum as sellers regain control. The broader outlook remains bearish, although the current decline is approaching an area where previous buying activity emerged. Whether XAUUSD can stabilise around the 4100–4120 region or extend its decline towards the previous lows will be critical in determining its next directional move.

Key Levels:

• Support 1 (4100–4120): The immediate support area surrounding the latest decline. Holding this region could encourage temporary consolidation or a technical rebound.
• Support 2 (4055): The next potential support area, situated near the lower boundary of the previous consolidation structure.
• Support 3 (3977–4000): A major support region associated with the previous June–July lows, representing an important downside reference if selling pressure persists.
• Resistance 1 (4292–4370): An important resistance zone where the three moving averages are converging, potentially restricting any meaningful recovery.
• Resistance 2 (4449–4528): A higher resistance region associated with the previous recovery and consolidation structure.
• Resistance 3 (4607–4685): The major resistance region surrounding the August recovery highs. A sustained recovery above this area would be needed to challenge the broader bearish structure.

XAUUSD 2-Hour Chart Analysis

(XAUUSD 2-Hour Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

The 2-hour chart reinforces the bearish outlook, with XAUUSD experiencing an accelerated decline after breaking below its previous consolidation structure. Prices remain significantly beneath the red 16-period moving average (MA16), purple 50-period moving average (MA50), and blue 100-period moving average (MA100). All three averages are declining, with the red MA16 positioned below the other two, confirming strong downward momentum. The latest selling wave has driven prices towards 4121, where a narrow consolidation is developing following the sharp decline.

RSI has fallen to 28.61, entering oversold territory and suggesting that a temporary technical rebound remains possible. Nevertheless, the prevailing structure continues to favour sellers unless prices can recover above the immediate resistance levels and establish a more convincing reversal.

Breakout Scenarios:

• Bullish continuation is a possible recovery scenario, triggered by a decisive break and sustained move above 4157. Such a development could encourage a rebound towards 4176, near the declining red MA16, followed by the 4195–4214 resistance region. However, this would initially represent a countertrend recovery rather than confirmation of a broader bullish reversal.
• Bearish correction remains the prevailing directional scenario if prices fail to recover above 4157 and subsequently break below the immediate 4110 support area. A confirmed breakdown could extend the decline towards 4081, reinforcing the existing bearish structure. Given the oversold RSI reading, a temporary consolidation or rebound could develop before any further downside extension.

XAUUSD Pivot Indicator

(XAUUSD 30-Minute Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Trading Central 30-minute chart indicates that XAUUSD is trading around 4122, significantly below the key pivot level at 4200, maintaining an immediate bearish bias. The sharp decline has pushed prices towards the first downside target at 4106, with 4081 representing the next potential support level.

RSI stands at 38.71, remaining below the neutral 50 threshold and reflecting persistent bearish momentum. The MACD remains in negative territory at -13.26, although its recent upward movement suggests that selling momentum may be stabilising. Nevertheless, prices must reclaim the 4200 pivot before a more meaningful bullish reversal can be considered.

• Bearish Breakdown: As long as XAUUSD remains below the 4200 pivot, the immediate bearish preference remains intact. Continued weakness around the current 4122 price area could expose the first downside target at 4106, followed by 4081 if selling pressure intensifies. An RSI reading that remains below 50, alongside a persistently negative MACD, would reinforce the bearish scenario.
• Bullish Reversal: A decisive breakout and sustained move above the 4200 pivot would be required to shift the immediate outlook towards a bullish recovery. Such a development could open the way towards the first upside target at 4243, followed by 4268. Confirmation would require the RSI to recover above 50 while the MACD crosses above its signal line and shows improving momentum.

Disclaimer Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.